In Venezuela’s complex economic landscape, official dollarization remains a recurring topic in public opinion. To delve deeper into this possibility, we consulted financial analyst Alejandro Pereira Ramos, who offers a pragmatic view on a phenomenon that, while latent, he describes as “remote.”
1. The Legal Knot and Political Cost
According to Pereira, the first major obstacle is the country’s legal structure. Current legislation establishes the Bolívar as the sole legal tender.
To formalize the dollar, a legal reform approved by the National Assembly would be necessary. “This would carry an extremely high political cost,” the analyst notes, highlighting the ideological contradiction of formally adopting the currency of the “arch-rival empire.”
2. The Sanctions Factor and Monetary Control
The relationship with the U.S. Treasury is another critical point. As a sanctioned nation, Venezuela is restricted from participating in the international foreign exchange market. Currently, the U.S. government acts indirectly as a sort of “clearinghouse” for Venezuelan crude oil payments, which would require a radical diplomatic shift before any monetary integration.
Furthermore, Pereira warns about the lack of oversight:
- The Federal Reserve (FED): It has no control over the money supply or electronic money within Venezuelan territory.
- The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV): Its capacity to disclose real and transparent figures remains a technical uncertainty.
3. The Burden of the State and Private Enterprise
One of the most sensitive points is the social impact. The Venezuelan state supports a massive payroll that includes public workers, social missions, and foundations. For Pereira, current cash flow makes it impossible to pay salaries directly in dollars for this sector. Similarly, he believes that national private enterprise is not yet prepared to take on a commitment of such magnitude.
4. Transnational Interests and Sovereignty
The analysis concludes with a look at foreign investment. For transnational companies planning to return to sectors such as energy, mining, and agriculture, it is more profitable to operate with a favorable exchange rate, investing “hard currency” against a devalued Bolívar.
Finally, official dollarization would grant Venezuela a level of monetary freedom that clashes with current geopolitical interests. According to the expert, independent access to the global market without the “oversight” of sanctions is not currently part of the White House’s roadmap for the country’s recovery and transition.
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